The Vuelta final week begins with Enric Mas in control, but not yet secure, after Tadej Pogačar’s abandon reshaped the race.
What had been expected to revolve around the world champion has become the most open Grand Tour of the season. Mas now carries the maillot rojo toward the decisive stages with a lead that looks significant, though far from untouchable.
The Movistar rider leads Felix Gall by 2:06 and Primož Roglič by 2:10 before the final stretch of racing. A 32km time trial in Jerez on stage 18 remains the largest obstacle on paper.
Mas has strengthened his position since inheriting red in Xeraco. He initially declined to wear the jersey on the podium, out of respect for Pogačar, but his riding has grown more assured since then.
He gained time on summit finishes at the Alto de Aitana, Calar Alto and La Pandera. Those performances made him the clear favourite, even if the pressure now changes sharply.
Vuelta final week puts Mas under a new kind of pressure
Mas has never built a reputation as a serial winner. He has also never entered the last week of a Grand Tour in a position like this.
That explains the repeated questions about his mindset. The 31-year-old has said he does not fear winning the Vuelta, but the final days often expose hesitation.
He appears to have the form, the lead and a stronger team than many expected. Now he must show the composure required to close the race.
Roglič remains the most obvious threat, even after a difficult second week. His season at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe changed after Remco Evenepoel’s arrival altered the leadership picture.
The Slovenian missed the team’s Tour de France plans and instead received leadership at the Vuelta. A heavy training crash in July then threatened those ambitions.
Roglič still exceeded expectations early in the race. He matched the main podium contenders behind Pogačar in Andorra on stage 4.
After Pogačar left the race four days later, Roglič suddenly had a clearer path. His ride on the Aitana suggested improving form, as he lost only 12 seconds to Mas.
He began the second week 1:18 behind red, with the Jerez time trial still ahead. Since then, the arithmetic has moved against him.
Roglič conceded 27 seconds to Mas at Calar Alto and another 25 at La Pandera. He slipped to third overall and now trails by more than two minutes.
The Jerez time trial has therefore become essential. Roglič must take major time there, but previous comparisons offer only partial guidance.
In Monaco on stage 1, he gained just 1.17 seconds per kilometre on Mas. At Caen during last year’s Tour, he was nearly three seconds per kilometre quicker.
In June’s Tour de Suisse time trial, Roglič was 3.24 seconds per kilometre faster than Mas. Yet this version of Mas has looked stronger than expected.
Roglič may need more than the time trial. If he wants a late comeback, he likely must attack Mas in the mountains too.
Carapaz and Gall could ignite the mountain stages
The unusual shape of this race has created rare possibilities. Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas are absent, while Pogačar is out.
Ten of the past 11 Grand Tours have gone to UAE Team Emirates-XRG or Visma | Lease a Bike riders. Neither squad remains in the overall victory fight here.
That gives riders outside the usual winning circle a rare chance. Gall, second at the Giro in May and expected to join Lidl-Trek, sits closest to Mas.
Richard Carapaz is the clearest wildcard. The EF Education-EasyPost rider stands fourth at 4:24 and already owns a Giro d’Italia title.
Carapaz has attacked often during this Vuelta, even when his legs have not matched his intent. He also finished the Tour strongly in July, taking two late stage wins.
Stages 19 and 20 in Andalusia could suit long-range aggression. Attacks toward Peñas Blancas and Collado del Alguacil may test Mas and unsettle the podium order.
Visma chase more wins as heat shapes the race
Beyond the general classification, Visma | Lease a Bike have become a central storyline. Wout van Aert’s victory on the heat-shortened stage 15 to Córdoba gave the team five stage wins.
Matthew Brennan said there was no reason to stop there. “Why not go for more?” he said after the stage.
Brennan has already become the first Grand Tour debutant to win three stages since Pogačar at the 2019 Vuelta. He also impressed while helping Van Aert from the break on stage 13.
Further sprint chances may come at La Rábida and Seville. Van Aert also looks set to win the green jersey and sharpen his form before the World Championships in Montreal.
The final week will also unfold under the shadow of extreme heat. Stage 3 to Font-Romeu was cancelled because of a sudden, severe hail shower, but high temperatures have dominated since the race moved south.
Conditions repeatedly pushed above 40°C in Andalusia during week two. Organisers shortened stage 15 by 79km after riders requested the extreme weather protocol.
Brennan described 44°C on the opening climb and warned of the health risks. Race director Javier Guillén said the decision reflected several days of accumulated heat.
High temperatures are forecast again for Tuesday, before a slight drop later in the week. Recovery could still become decisive as the race moves toward Granada.
The sporting question remains whether Mas can finish the job. The wider question is how cycling adapts to summers that increasingly shape the racing itself.
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